Phân tích thị trường

Phần Phân tích Thị trường của Forexmart cung cấp thông tin cập nhật về thị trường tài chính. Phần tổng quan nhằm cung cấp cho bạn cái nhìn sâu sắc về các xu hướng hiện tại, dự báo tài chính, báo cáo kinh tế toàn cầu và tin tức chính trị có ảnh hưởng đến thị trường.

Disclaimer:  ForexMart không đưa ra lời khuyên đầu tư và phân tích được cung cấp không được coi là lời hứa về kết quả trong tương lai.

Unenviable prospects for USD/JPY
02:18 2022-11-17 UTC--6

The dollar-yen pair continues to sway from side to side, as the market is growing uncertainty around the future policy of the Federal Reserve. But how long will this flat last and how will it end?

Yesterday's chaotic dynamics of the USD/JPY asset perfectly conveys the current market mood. It seems that traders are completely confused about the plans of the US central bank and are waiting for any clues about further rate hikes in the US.

The trouble is that these tips turn out to be very contradictory and bring even more confusion to the ranks of investors, which affects the movement of dollar majors.

Last week's US inflation data almost convinced market participants that the Fed may soon begin to take less aggressive action.

However, hawkish comments by US officials this week have backfired.

Most members of the Fed remain combative about inflation, even though there are very strong signs of a slowdown on the horizon.

So, yesterday the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Esther George said that it is too early to relax, because the increase in prices is still high.

The same opinion was voiced by her colleague Mary Daly, who, by the way, is considered one of the most dovish speakers of the Fed. The official stressed that currently a pause in rate hikes is not even discussed.

The hawkish rhetoric helped the dollar stabilize a bit. On Wednesday, the DXY index found support at 106.31 after falling to 105.3 a day earlier.

As for the USD/JPY pair, it was trading flat yesterday. The quote fluctuated between a high of 140.29 and a low of 138.72.

analytics6375e4f633609.jpg

According to many experts, the current consolidation of the major may take a long time. Bulls and bears will continue to pull the price rope until they receive a specific signal from the US central bank.

Most likely, this will not happen before the next Fed interest rate meeting, which is scheduled for December 14th. This event will serve as a key trigger for the asset and determine its further direction, analysts say.

Now most traders are leaning towards the fact that the Fed will raise rates in December not by 75 bps, but by only half a percentage point. If the forecast comes true, the dollar's position will be greatly shaken.

An even bigger blow for the greenback could be the second consecutive decline in the core US consumer price index.

"If by the end of November we again see a significant slowdown in inflation, the final level of the rate is likely to be revised downward, down to 4.50%," Credit Suisse analysts predict. - In this case, by the end of the fourth quarter, the dollar may fall against the yen to 138.00, and in the long term - to the level of 133.10.

J.P. Morgan analysts also predict the end of the upward trend for the USD/JPY pair if US rates do peak in the near future.

In their opinion, in this scenario, this dollar major will suffer more than the others, because it was the main beneficiary of the aggressive anti-inflation campaign that the Fed launched this year.

Recall that since January, the yen has dipped against the greenback by more than 20%. This is the worst performance among all the currencies of the Group of 10.

The JPY was the biggest loser of the year due to strong monetary divergence between Japan and other economies. While most major central banks have taken a hawkish stance this year, the Bank of Japan has remained the only supporter of low interest rates.

In recent days, when there is a high probability that the key political opponent of the BOJ, the Fed, may soon move to a less aggressive rate, the yen has received very strong support.

Now its future is in the hands of American politicians. Experts believe that, in the event of a sharp slowdown in US tightening, the USD/JPY pair risks losing almost half of its annual growth.

Phản hồi

ForexMart is authorized and regulated in various jurisdictions.

(Reg No.23071, IBC 2015) with a registered office at Shamrock Lodge, Murray Road, Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Restricted Regions: the United States of America, North Korea, Sudan, Syria and some other regions.


© 2015-2024 Tradomart SV Ltd.
Top Top
Cảnh báo Rủi ro:
Giao dịch ngoại hối có rủi ro mất tiền cao do đòn bẩy và có thể không phù hợp với tất cả các nhà đầu tư. Trước khi quyết định đầu tư tiền của mình, bạn nên xem xét cẩn thận tất cả các tính năng liên quan đến Forex, cũng như mục tiêu đầu tư, mức độ kinh nghiệm và khả năng chấp nhận rủi ro của bạn.
Giao dịch ngoại hối có rủi ro mất tiền cao do đòn bẩy và có thể không phù hợp với tất cả các nhà đầu tư. Trước khi quyết định đầu tư tiền của mình, bạn nên xem xét cẩn thận tất cả các tính năng liên quan đến Forex, cũng như mục tiêu đầu tư, mức độ kinh nghiệm và khả năng chấp nhận rủi ro của bạn.