Morgan Stanley’s economists believe that a recovery in global growth will occur in the first quarter of 2020 due to a combination of easing trade tensions and easier monetary policy. According to a forecast, weakening of trade tensions between the US and China will reduce uncertainty for businesses and create favorable conditions for monetary policy. Bank’s experts predict the world economy growth by 3.2% (3% is expected by the end of 2019). However, analysts warn, that economic lift depends on the outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China. If Washington introduces additional duties on Chinese goods on December 15, economic growth will slow down in the IV quarter of this year to 2.8% and recovery may be delayed until the III quarter of 2020. In July 2019, Morgan Stanley analysts lowered their forecast for global economic growth in 2019 to a six-year low of 2.9%.
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