The aggravation of trade tensions between the United States and China may negatively affect global commodity markets in 2025, while gold retains favorable prospects. Analysts believe that President-elect Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on imports from partner countries and possible retaliatory measures by China are capable of destabilizing the markets for oil, metals and agricultural products. At the same time, traders expect measures to stimulate the economy in China aimed at increasing domestic consumption, but the effect of these initiatives remains questionable. The oil market Experts emphasize that a comfortable balance of supply and demand creates prerequisites for lower prices in most commodity markets next year, and the escalation of trade disputes adds additional risks. Oil prices may remain under pressure due to increased supplies from non-OPEC countries. According to forecasts, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 will decrease to $71 per barrel from the current $74. At the same time, the expansion of liquefied natural gas export capacities to the United States may contribute to the growth of domestic demand and stabilization of gas prices, helping Europe to compensate for the decline in supplies from Russia. This will help to avoid sharp price spikes under favorable weather conditions, for example, in the case of a warm winter. The gold market Unlike oil, gold is likely to continue to rise in price amid ongoing geopolitical and economic instability. The average gold price is expected to reach $2,760 per ounce in 2025, which is higher than current levels. Demand from central banks seeking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves will remain the main driver of growth, and increasing geopolitical tensions will further strengthen gold's position as a defensive asset.
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