The European currency strengthened its position after Donald Trump's statements about the revision of global trade rules. The euro reached a six-month high against the dollar, and on Thursday showed the largest intraday increase since 2015 amid unexpectedly tough tariff measures. Experts have revised their forecasts for the euro upward, making positive estimates of annual options for the first time in four years. This change in forecasts contrasts with the situation two months ago, when it was assumed that the euro would fall to parity with the dollar due to the likelihood of a more active reduction in ECB rates. The market is now forecasting three ECB rate cuts this year, versus four from the Fed. The Dollar Spot index experienced a 2.1% drop, the largest since 2005, while the euro strengthened by 2.7%, which was the most significant increase in a decade. The dollar has partially recovered, but remains close to October lows. The euro's appreciation began after Germany increased spending on defense and infrastructure, which could mitigate the effects of tariffs on the EU economy. Measures to reduce the regulatory burden on businesses are also considered a positive factor.
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