Monday, August 30 The beginning of the trading week will be accompanied by the strengthening of the US dollar against all competing currencies without exception. The fact is that the weakening that we saw at the end of last week was purely speculative. Therefore, a technical rollback is simply inevitable. Moreover, the preliminary estimate of inflation in Germany showed an increase from 3.8% to 3.9%. This suggests that inflation will continue to rise across the euro area as well, only reinforcing concerns about uncontrolled consumer price increases. It is worth noting that annual inflation in Germany remains at its highest level since 1993. Tuesday, August 31 Tuesday starts with a slight weakening of the yen, as industrial production growth in Japan may slow from 23% to 19%. But this is only on an annualized basis, and in monthly terms, the figure should decline by 3.2%. The main event of the day will be the publication of a preliminary estimate of inflation in the eurozone, which should rise from 2.2% to 2.7%. Such a rapid rise in consumer prices may frighten investors, as this situation requires immediate action by the ECB, which, however, is still doing nothing. And he doesn't even give any hints about possible steps. This trend is not in favor of the European currency, and we can see a decline in the euro in the first half of the trading day on Tuesday. In the evenings, pay attention to the Canadian GDP and the CB Consumer Confidence Index in the United States. Wednesday, September 1 On Wednesday, the Australian dollar may receive support in the form of GDP statistics for the second quarter: the data should show an acceleration in economic growth from 1.1% to 9.2%. The single European currency may also get some room for growth. Indeed, despite the rise in inflation, the unemployment rate should fall from 7.7% to 7.6%. An important publication on Wednesday will be data on the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector from the ADP. Experts expect the indicator to grow from 330 thousand to 625 thousand people. Thursday, September 2 Thursday will start with inflation data in Switzerland, which could provide significant support to the franc. This statistic, just like in Europe, should show an increase in inflation. However, in this case it will be perceived exclusively as a positive factor, since inflation should replace deflation. At the moment, prices are falling by 0.1%, and should start to rise by 0.2%. But the euro may come under pressure. The fact is that the growth rate of producer prices may accelerate from 10.2% to 11.0%, which indicates a further rise in inflation, and in the near future. In the US, there will be published data on applications for unemployment benefits. Some decrease in their number is expected (from 353 thousand to 345 thousand). Friday, September 3 The main event of the week will be the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, which is traditionally published on the first Friday of the month. The next Payrolls report should show that the unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.3%, and 650 thousand new jobs were created outside agriculture. This will signal that the US labor market continues to recover, and in terms of such an indicator as the unemployment rate, is already very close to pre-crisis values. Accordingly, the US Federal Reserve will have another reason to start a gradual tightening of monetary policy, which will lead to a confident rise in the dollar.
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