The price test at 1.1599 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1599 coincided with the MACD being in overbought territory, prompting the implementation of Scenario 2 to sell the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 10 pips.
In the first half of the day, market attention will be focused on several significant economic reports from Germany. The key focus will be on changes in retail sales and unemployment dynamics, including the overall unemployment rate. Following that, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be released, along with a speech by the head of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. It is expected that the retail sales report will reflect consumer spending patterns. An increase in this indicator would be favorable for the euro. Unemployment data will provide insights into the current state of the labor market. Inflation dynamics will also be significant; however, only very high price growth would support the euro.
Finally, Nagel's speech will prompt investors to look for signals on future monetary policy, especially amid recent debates about the potential end of the interest rate-cutting cycle. His remarks about inflation and Germany's economic prospects will impact the value of the euro.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy euros today at a price around 1.1599 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1628. At point 1.1628, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Buying the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before purchasing, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1575 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.1599 and 1.1628.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell euros after reaching the level of 1.1575 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1553, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1599 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a drop to opposing levels of 1.1575 and 1.1553.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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