Monday, November 15 The week started again with an almost empty economic calendar. The latest statistics came only from the eurozone, where the region's trade balance was published. The balance sheet surplus was fixed at the level of 7.3 billion euros, but it is unlikely that these data will have at least some impact on the market and investor sentiment. It is worth noting that a trade surplus is already typical for Europe. In the second half of last week, the dollar showed significant growth, and today we can see its slight weakening within the framework of a local correction. Tuesday, November 16 Tuesday will begin with a noticeable weakening of the British pound, which will be under pressure from unemployment statistics (the indicator may rise from 4.5% to 4.6%). However, after the opening of the US session, the US dollar paired with sterling will begin to lose ground. The fact is that retail sales data will be published on Tuesday, the growth rate of which may slow down from 13.9% to 12.0%. This means that we are talking about a decrease in consumer activity, which is not surprising in general against the background of record inflation over the past 30 years. In addition, the growth rate of industrial production may slow down from 4.6% to 3.9%. Wednesday, November 17 Wednesday will also start with the weakening of the pound sterling. This time it is the fault of inflation, which should rise from 3.1% to 3.7%. This suggests that the UK is gradually starting to catch up with Europe and the United States in terms of consumer price growth. And this will inevitably lead to a sharp reduction in consumer activity and a subsequent slowdown in economic growth. Inflation data will also be published in the eurozone, but they will not affect anything, as they must confirm the preliminary estimate, which has already been taken into account by the market. Canada will also present inflation statistics on Wednesday, and, most likely, the Canadian dollar will already be under pressure. Inflation in the country should rise from 4.4% to 4.9%. Thursday, November 18 On Thursday, the Swiss franc will begin to decline – due to a slowdown in the growth rate of industrial production from 15.7% to 9.1%. Such a sharp decline may frighten many investors, which will cause its weakening. But the US dollar will start to grow on Thursday. The growth driver will be data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (it should be reduced by 4 thousand). The number of repeated applications will also be reduced by 20 thousand. Although these are small values, we are still talking about the further recovery of the labor market. Friday, November 19 Friday starts with statistics on inflation in Japan. And although this time it is expected not growth, but a decrease in the indicator, from 0.2% to 0.1%, this will still lead to a weakening of the yen. Since deflation in the country is perceived extremely negatively. But the British pound has every chance to improve its position at the end of the week, as the rate of decline in retail sales on an annualized basis should slow down from -1.3% to -0.6%. And the situation is completely reversed for the Canadian dollar, and the growth rate of retail sales in Canada may slow down from 8.4% to 6.0%. So the trading week will end with the weakening of the Canadian dollar.
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