Monday, March 28 As it often happens, the macroeconomic calendar on Monday is absolutely empty, so the market will focus only on the further development of the situation around Russia's decision to sell gas to unfriendly countries for rubles. Market participants are interested in the response steps of Western European countries – the further vector of the movement of the euro and the pound depends on their reaction. Tuesday, March 29 On Tuesday, you should pay attention to the data on the lending market in the UK: analysts expect a decrease in the volume of mortgage and private lending. And this will negatively affect the exchange rate of the pound sterling, even despite the possible growth of consumer lending. The US dollar may also come under pressure, as the number of open vacancies in the country is likely to decrease. And this indicates a deterioration of the situation on the labor market, which is traditionally regarded as a negative factor. The consumer confidence index should also decrease in March. Wednesday, March 30 The only thing worth paying attention to on Wednesday is retail sales in Japan, the growth rate of which may slow down from 1.6% to 1.1% in February. At the same time, the March data may well show a decline in sales on an annualized basis. Therefore, the yen is likely to continue to lose its positions. But the final data on US GDP for 2021 will pass unnoticed, as they should confirm a preliminary estimate that showed an acceleration in economic growth from 4.9% to 5.6%. In addition, these data are for the past year, and it is worth considering that literally in the last month the situation in the world has changed dramatically. Thursday, March 31 Statistics on the final data on UK GDP will also be ignored, which, although they should show a slowdown in economic growth from 7.0% to 6.5%, have already been taken into account by the market. The same cannot be said about retail sales in Switzerland, where their growth rate may slow down from 5.1% to 4.5%. And again, these are data for February, and in March statistics may show a much more significant slowdown. Which will negatively affect the Swiss franc exchange rate. But the unemployment rate in the eurozone is also likely to be ignored by market participants. Simply by virtue of the fact that it should remain unchanged. However, the European currency may well strengthen its position due to an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Friday, April 1 Friday will be the busiest day of the week. First, preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone for March will be published, which should show an acceleration in consumer price growth from 5.9% to 6.4%. Given the rapid rise in fuel prices in Europe, it is highly likely that inflation will accelerate even more. And this is an extremely negative factor for the euro exchange rate. Next, you should pay attention to the Nonfarm Payrolls report from the US Department of Labor. The unemployment rate should decrease from 3.8% to 3.7%, and 475 thousand new jobs can be created outside agriculture. And this is two and a half times more than is necessary to maintain the stability of the labor market. In other words, unemployment will continue to decline, which will be a strong factor in supporting the US currency at the end of the week.
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