Last week, oil prices showed the largest weekly increase since mid-2020. Yesterday, Brent futures quotes closed trading at $118.1 per barrel, which is 21% higher than last Friday's values. On Saturday, Brent continued to grow, reaching another high at $118.94 per barrel. Analysts note that in the current conditions of high volatility, it is extremely difficult to make any forecasts, since every day there are many important news that can change the mood of the market. However, one thing is obvious – further dynamics will depend on the course of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Currently, Western politicians are motivated to keep the raw materials industry in suspense for as long as possible, exerting political pressure on Russia. If geopolitical tensions increase, oil prices will continue their rally. Analysts point to the 2011 highs of $128-130 per barrel as the target. At the same time, the West understands that serious restrictions on oil and gas exports will mirror the Western economy and may lead to a rapid acceleration of inflation in Europe. Russian exports are up to 5 million b/d daily or 5% of global demand, so it will not be possible to replace this volume. Experts also assume that the current restrictions related to sanctions will not result in a protracted conflict. After de-escalation, Western countries can soften the rhetoric and issue clarifications to the sanctions with a list of exceptions for trade in goods critical to the EU, including Russian oil and gas. But at the moment, oil traders, sea carriers, insurance companies and banks engaged in trade financing are trying to avoid new deals with Russian oil, despite a large discount to the market ($18 per barrel).
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