According to analysts of the Carson Group financial holding, the best outcome of the midterm elections in the United States will be the election of a president from the ranks of Democrats and a Republican-controlled Congress. In this case, the market will be ready for a new big rally. The latest forecast of the election results showed that Republicans are winning seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. If we turn to history, we can see that since 1950, the S&P 500 has brought the highest average annual yield when the power of a Democratic president was restrained by a Republican-controlled Congress. A similar situation was observed in the late 1990-s under Democratic President Clinton. Experts note that at that time it was quite a favorable time for investors and the economy. In particular, under a Democratic president, the S&P 500 had an average annual return of 16.2% when Republicans controlled both houses of Congress. With a split Congress, the yield was already 13.6%, and with a Congress controlled by Democrats, it was only 10.1%. A completely different situation was observed under the Republican presidency: in this case, the S&P 500 showed an average annual yield of only 4.9% when Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, and 13.7% with a split Congress. Under the Republican-controlled Congress, the yield was 6.7%.
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