Kemas kini dan ramalan pasaran

Ulasan analisis Forexmart memberikan maklumat teknikal terkini mengenai pasaran kewangan. Laporan ini mengandungi arah aliran saham, ramalan kewangan, laporan ekonomi global, dan berita politik yang mempengaruhi pasaran.

Disclaimer:  ForexMart tidak memberikan nasihat pelaburan dan analisis yang disediakan tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai jaminan untuk hasil dagangan yang akan datang.

Joby Aviation expanduje, ale vysoké ocenění budí obavy investorů

Společnost Joby Aviation je jedním z průkopníků v oblasti elektrických letadel s kolmým startem a přistáním (eVTOL), která mají potenciál revolučně změnit leteckou dopravu.

Od svého vstupu na burzu v roce 2021, který proběhl sloučením se SPAC společností, však její akcie ztratily téměř 40 %.

Joby se snaží vyvinout a komercializovat flotilu leteckých taxislužeb, avšak její cesta je zatím plná výzev. Přestože si firma zajišťuje nové investice, rozšiřuje výrobu a pracuje na získání potřebných certifikací, stále nedosáhla ziskovosti a její akcie jsou vysoce spekulativní.

Otázkou tak zůstává, zda je Joby Aviation nyní výhodnou investicí, nebo zda její ocenění už odráží veškerý potenciál růstu.

Zdroj: Getty images

Expanze a první dodávky letadel

Joby (JOBY) aktivně rozšiřuje svůj provoz a zvyšuje produkci letadel, aby si upevnila pozici na trhu. V posledních dvou letech firma dodala dvě letadla S4 americkému letectvu (USAF) na leteckou základnu Edwards (AFB). Další dvě letadla mají být doručena v roce 2025 na MacDill AFB.

Joby má v současné době zkušební flotilu pěti letadel, včetně prvního hybridního modelu poháněného vodíkem, který by měl nabídnout pětinásobně delší dolet oproti elektrické verzi. Firma plánuje získat certifikaci od Federálního úřadu pro letectví (FAA), což je klíčový krok k zahájení komerčního provozu.

Pokud FAA schválí provoz letounů Joby, společnost by mohla ve spolupráci s Delta Air Lines a Uber Technologies zahájit letecké taxislužby v New Yorku a Los Angeles.

Kromě Spojených států se Joby snaží rozšířit své působení i do zahraničí. Firma plánuje v první polovině roku 2025 dodat první letoun do Dubaje a koncem roku 2025 nebo začátkem 2026 zahájit přepravu cestujících. Kromě toho již provedla testovací lety v Jižní Koreji a Japonsku, což naznačuje silné globální ambice.

Finanční situace a ocenění akcií

Přestože Joby nedosahuje zisku, společnost si zajišťuje významné finanční prostředky od strategických investorů. V roce 2024 získala více než 1 miliardu dolarů, přičemž největší podíl tvořila investice 500 milionů dolarů od Toyoty.

Firma zakončila rok 2024 s 933 miliony dolarů v hotovosti, což jí dává dostatečné prostředky k pokračování ve vývoji a expanzi.

Nicméně akcie Joby zůstávají extrémně drahé. Hodnota podniku se pohybuje kolem 4,7 miliardy dolarů, což odpovídá 522násobku letošních tržeb a 22násobku tržeb očekávaných v roce 2027. Pro srovnání, konkurenční Archer Aviationhodnotu podniku 3,6 miliardy dolarů, ale obchoduje se pouze za osminásobek tržeb v roce 2027.

Dalším varovným signálem je prodej akcií ze strany insiderů. Za posledních 12 měsíců prodalo vedení Joby dvakrát více akcií, než kolik nakoupilo. Naproti tomu u Archeru byl trend opačný – insideri nakoupili 12krát více akcií, než prodali. To může naznačovat, že vedení Joby si není jisté dalším růstem akcií.

Vyplatí se nyní investovat do Joby Aviation?

Trh s eVTOL letadly je stále v rané fázi vývoje, ale společnosti jako Joby a Archer Aviation doufají, že v příštích letech dojde k masivní expanzi městské letecké mobility. Přesto se očekává, že obě firmy zůstanou několik let ztrátové, protože jejich výdaje na vývoj a výrobu letadel převyšují příjmy.

Kromě toho Joby i Archer pravidelně ředí podíl investorů, aby získaly nový kapitál pro financování svého růstu. Počet akcií Joby za poslední tři roky vzrostl o 30 %, zatímco u Archeru dokonce o 127 %.

Joby má silné partnery, inovativní technologie a ambiciózní plány, ale její akcie jsou spekulativní investicí kvůli vysokému ocenění a dlouhodobé ztrátovosti.

Pokud chce investor vsadit na budoucnost leteckých taxislužeb, může být Archer Aviation zajímavější alternativou, protože je levněji oceněn a má silnější podporu od United Airlines, Stellantis a ministerstva obrany USA.

Vzhledem k tomu, že Joby zůstává ztrátové a její akcie jsou momentálně nadhodnocené, může být pro investory rozumnější počkat na lepší vstupní bod nebo se zaměřit na jiné společnosti v odvětví.

Zdroj: Shutterstock

Trump pulls strings — stock market sinks in response
06:46 2025-03-28 UTC--4

Global markets rattled by Trump's tariffs: stocks plunge, gold edges higher

Financial markets around the world are reeling for the second straight day, while gold prices are surging to new all-time highs. This can be attributed to a fresh and unexpected escalation in the trade confrontation launched by the White House.

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump's administration announced 25% tariffs on imported automobiles and auto parts, intensifying global tensions and sending shockwaves through Asia. Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI immediately fell into the red.

American auto giants under pressure

Investors reacted with alarm as the biggest US automakers took a direct hit. General Motors shares plunged by 7.36%, while Ford dropped by 3.88%. The US arm of Stellantis also slid by 1.25%.

Auto parts suppliers were not spared: Aptiv and BorgWarner both sank by around 5%, reflecting deepening fears over the stability of global supply chains.

Indices turn red: Wall Street in shock

US stock benchmarks closed sharply lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 155.09 points (-0.37%) to close at 42,299.70. The S&P 500 lost 18.89 points (-0.33%), ending at 5,693.31, while the Nasdaq Composite declined by 94.98 points (-0.53%) to settle at 17,804.03.

Worrying trend: markets on verge of first back-to-back monthly losses in six months

If current momentum holds, US equities are on track to finish March with a second consecutive monthly decline — something not seen since last October. For now, investors appear hesitant to return to risk assets as Washington's trade rhetoric continues to escalate.

Europe's auto giants slide as tariff fears roil markets

Markets across Europe could not escape the wave of negativity. European trading ended firmly in the red, with leading automakers taking the brunt of the sell-off. Volkswagen shares fell by 1.26%, BMW lost 2.55%, and Mercedes-Benz dropped by 2.69% amid growing fears over new US tariffs.

European stocks hit two-week lows

The pan-European STOXX 600 index, which tracks the region's largest companies, declined by 0.44% to 546.31, marking its lowest close in two weeks. Meanwhile, the MSCI World Index, which tracks global equity performance, also slipped, losing 2.77 points (0.33%) to end the day at 843.19.

Tariffs and Fed policy spark investor anxiety

News of an expanding trade war weighed not only on specific sectors but also on overall market sentiment. Concerns are rising that the introduction of new tariffs could stall the global economic recovery and force the Federal Reserve to delay expected interest rate cuts, previously anticipated in the coming months.

Despite recent attempts by markets to stabilize, overall uncertainty remains high, with investors maintaining a cautious stance.

Currency market: dollar slips, euro rebounds

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major global currencies, fell by 0.33% to 104.29. The euro, in contrast, gained 0.4% to reach $1.0795.

Currencies closely tied to the auto industry came under pressure. The Mexican peso dipped by 0.86%, and the Canadian dollar slipped by 0.29%, as economists warn of potential economic damage if full-scale US auto tariffs take effect.

Canada prepares to respond: Ottawa signals retaliation

As trade tensions rise, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney issued a clear warning on Thursday: if the Trump administration moves forward with tariffs on foreign automobiles, Ottawa will respond. Carney stated that Canada's actions would be "non-specific but effective," signaling a flexible yet firm approach as the conflict escalates.

US economy keeps beat despite market turbulence

Fresh economic data from the United States point to ongoing stability in the labor market. Jobless claims continue to decline, while employment levels, based on preliminary estimates, remain steady.

Interestingly, Elon Musk's proposal to drastically reduce the number of federal employees as part of a civil service reform has yet to show any noticeable impact on labor statistics — nor has the White House's tariff policy.

Auto tariffs with timelines

President Donald Trump's plan to impose 25% tariffs on imported passenger cars and pickups is set to take effect on April 3. One month later, beginning May 3, the same duties will be applied to auto parts. Despite the tough rhetoric, the president has left room for a possible adjustment to the terms, adding uncertainty to the policy path ahead.

Tech giant cushions market losses

Amid broad market declines, Apple shares stood out, rising by 1.05%. That move helped soften the blow to the S&P 500 and prevented a deeper slide in the index.

Tensions run high as investors navigate growing uncertainty

The unpredictable nature of Trump's trade maneuvers continues to weigh on Wall Street. Investors are concerned about the potential collapse of global supply chains, capital flight, and rising inflation expectations — all of which could undermine confidence in global growth prospects.

Dollar Tree surprises market: shares soar on transparency

On the corporate front, discount retailer Dollar Tree made headlines. After disclosing issues at its Family Dollar unit, which has lost roughly $1 billion, the company's stock unexpectedly surged by 11%. The rally was fueled by positive analyst revisions, as experts took the company's candor and hints at a potential strategic pivot as an encouraging signal.

Inflation in focus: markets await key data

On Friday, investor attention will turn to new inflation data — namely the February reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The report could shape the Fed's next policy moves and set the tone for market sentiment in the second quarter.

US markets slide: worst year-opening performance since pandemic

Fears of an escalating trade conflict and uncertainty around monetary policy are already weighing on investor sentiment. Traders have notably scaled back their exposure to US equities, and the impact is visible: the S&P 500 has retreated nearly 7% from its record high on February 19, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has dropped almost 12% from its mid-December peak.

Asia under pressure: Japan and Korea's auto giants drag markets lower

Pessimism has spread to Asian markets. On Friday, major regional indices moved lower — with the most pronounced declines in Japan and South Korea. The Nikkei fell more than 2%, driven by steep drops in Toyota and Honda, two key players in the auto sector. Meanwhile, South Korea's KOSPI slipped to a two-week low, weighed down by losses in the automotive industry, a cornerstone of the local economy.

Hong Kong breaks away: China's market charts different course

Surprisingly, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index posted a 0.6% gain, defying the global jitters. The market shrugged off tariff threats, buoyed by encouraging signals from Washington. President Trump said he was willing to consider concessions on Chinese tariffs if a deal is reached to sell TikTok to a US-based buyer unaffiliated with China's ByteDance.

Automakers reroute production to dodge tariff fallout

The White House's latest tariff wave is already reshaping the global auto industry. Several leading automakers, including Volvo Cars, Audi (part of Volkswagen Group), Mercedes-Benz, and Hyundai, have officially announced the relocation of parts of their production to more stable regions. The move is a response to the rising cost risks associated with new trade barriers.

Meanwhile, Ferrari, whose manufacturing is entirely based in Italy, is taking a different path. With relocation off the table, the luxury automaker plans to raise prices on select models by up to 10% to offset potential logistics and export-related costs.

Dollar loses momentum on concerns about US growth outlook

In currency markets, the US dollar is weakening, dragged down by rising concerns over the economic impact of tariffs. The greenback is on track for a quarterly decline, with the euro holding firm at $1.07942 and expected to end the quarter up about 4%.

Yen strengthens as BoJ rate hike bets grow

The Japanese yen edged higher to 150.76 per dollar in early Asian trading. It is also gaining ground quarter-to-date, up nearly 4%, as expectations mount that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates — a move not seen in years.

Tokyo inflation data fuels policy shift expectations

Friday's data showed a pickup in core consumer inflation in Tokyo for March. Food prices continue to climb, and inflation remains above the BOJ's target, reinforcing expectations among market participants that monetary tightening could come sooner rather than later.

Gold shines bright: precious metal hits all-time high

Amid intensifying global trade conflicts, gold has once again reaffirmed its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset for investors. On Friday, the precious metal surged to a record high, with the spot price climbing to $3,073.31 per ounce, up 0.58% on the session. The growing threat of a full-scale trade war is prompting capital to shift from equities into more conservative assets — and gold remains unrivaled in that role.

Since the beginning of the year, gold has gained over 17%, putting the first quarter of 2025 on track for its strongest performance since the mid-1980s. The last time the metal posted such a powerful quarterly gain was in 1986.

Oil prices weighed down by geopolitics, supply uncertainty

While gold soars, the oil market is moving with more restraint. WTI crude rose by 0.39% to trade at $69.92 per barrel, while Brent climbed by 0.33% to $74.03.

Investors are weighing the dual impact of geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty — on one hand, supply fears are intensifying; on the other, new trade barriers could dampen global growth, curbing energy demand.

Despite minor intraday fluctuations, futures ended the session slightly lower. Brent contracts slipped by 0.07% to $73.98, and WTI futures also fell by 0.07% to settle at $69.87.

This volatility reflects tense market expectations as traders try to gauge whether supply cuts will ultimately outweigh the negative drag from tariff escalation.

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Pertukaran wang asing amat spekulatif dan kompleks, dan mungkin tidak sesuai untuk semua pelabur. Perdagangan forex boleh menghasilkan keuntungan atau kerugian dalam jumlah yang besar. Oleh itu, adalah tidak digalakkan untuk melaburkan wang sekiranya anda tidak bersedia untuk menanggung kerugian. Sebelum menggunakan perkhidmatan yang ditawarkan oleh ForexMart, sila fahami risiko yang berkaitan dengan perdagangan forex. Dapatkan nasihat kewangan bebas sekiranya perlu. Harap maklum bahawa prestasi masa lalu atau ramalan bukan petunjuk yang boleh dipercayai untuk hasil di masa hadapan.