Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The 1.2934 price test coincided with the MACD indicator beginning its downward movement from the zero level, confirming the validity of the entry point. As a result, the pair declined by only 15 points.

The pound reacted with a slight decline to the news that UK GDP contracted in January. However, the drop was minor, indicating the British currency's resilience to short-term economic fluctuations. Traders likely already priced in the potential negative effects of slowing economic growth at the beginning of the year.

Moreover, the market's focus has shifted to the Bank of England's future actions. The central bank is expected to continue its monetary policy easing, which could pressure the British pound. The January GDP decline further reinforces this expectation.

Today, several U.S. economic reports will be released. If the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation forecasts disappoint, the dollar may face downward pressure, potentially supporting further gains in the pound. However, geopolitical developments and changes in the global economy could increase market volatility.

For intraday trading, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying the pound is possible at the 1.2955 entry point (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.2990 (thicker green line). At 1.2990, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction. The uptrend supports further pound strength today.

Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity will arise if the price tests 1.2931 twice, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. Potential targets: 1.2955 and 1.2990.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling the pound is an option after the price breaks below 1.2931 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 1.2898, where I plan to exit short positions and buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point retracement. Selling pressure will increase if U.S. economic data beats expectations.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: Another selling opportunity will arise if the price tests 1.2955 twice, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. Potential targets: 1.2931 and 1.2898.

Chart Breakdown

• Thin green line – Entry price for buy positions
• Thick green line – Expected price level for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further growth beyond this point is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for sell positions
• Thick red line – Expected price level for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further decline beyond this point is unlikely
• MACD Indicator: It is crucial to follow overbought and oversold zones when entering the market

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

Beginner Forex traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of key economic reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price swings.

If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly deplete your account balance, especially if you trade large volumes without proper risk management.

Remember: Successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on current market movements is a losing strategy for intraday traders.