Monday, November 29 The beginning of a new trading week will be quite rich in news publications. It will all start with retail sales data in Japan: the indicator grew for the first time in three months, although less than expected – from minus 0.5% to 0.9%. Then data on the lending market in the UK is published: the volume of consumer lending should decrease by 0.6 billion pounds. At the same time, it is expected that only 70.1 thousand mortgage loans will be approved against 72.6 thousand in the previous month. As a result, the volume of mortgage lending will amount to only 4.8 billion pounds, although a month ago it was equal to 9.5 billion pounds. And it won't do the pound any good. Things will not be the best for the Canadian dollar either, since the growth rate of producer prices in Canada may accelerate from 14.9% to 16.7%. Following this, inflation will inevitably rise, which in the current conditions is perceived as an exceptionally negative factor. Tuesday, November 30 On Tuesday, all investors' attention will be focused on preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone, which, according to forecasts, should accelerate from 4.1% to 4.5%. Rising inflation will again put pressure on the exchange rate of the single European currency, especially in the conditions of inaction of the European Central Bank. The situation is aggravated by the position of the Central Bank: the regulator does not intend to do anything with the current situation, expecting that inflation will soon return to its usual levels without any external influence. Wednesday, December 1 On Wednesday, the final data on the indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector of many countries are published, but they will have little effect, since they should coincide with the preliminary estimates already taken into account by the market. But the data on Australia's GDP for the third quarter will be of particular interest on this day. The growth rate of the economy may decrease significantly – from 9.6% to 1.5%, and this will inevitably lead to a weakening of the Australian dollar. But the most significant event of the day will be the publication of employment data in the United States, which should grow by 580 thousand. And this is slightly more than 571 thousand in the previous month, which indicates that the situation in the US labor market continues to improve. Therefore, the dollar will have pretty good prospects in the middle of the trading week. Thursday, December 2 On Thursday, data on retail sales in Switzerland are published, which are likely to lead to a weakening of the Swiss franc. The fact is that the sales growth rate should slow down from 2.5% to 0.6%. In the evening, the United States will present statistics on applications for unemployment benefits, which this time precedes the publication of the report of the Ministry of Labor. According to forecasts, the number of repeated requests should be reduced by 49 thousand, but the number of primary ones may grow by 46 thousand. In other words, the data will level each other and are unlikely to have any impact on the dynamics of the dollar. Friday, December 3 Well, the main event of the whole week will be the Friday publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, against which even inflation in the eurozone is fading. And although the unemployment rate itself should remain unchanged, the dollar will still be able to significantly strengthen its position. The fact is that the number of new jobs created outside agriculture should grow to 550 thousand. And this is even more than in the previous month. This suggests that the high unemployment rate is still temporary, and in the near future it will decline again.
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