Forecast of Fed’s Easing of Balance Sheet to Raise Rates on Q4

The U.S. Federal Reserve intends to curtail its balance sheet estimated $4 trillion or more in September according to the Reuters poll. It still in the track of what the Fed hinted in the past few weeks despite there is no congruence when it comes to inflation which is deemed to be essential as it could influence the future interest rate hikes.

Last month, it is predicted that Fed would raise its rates by September but this was recalibrated and moved for another month with the outcomes of the latest polls saying that fed funds rate would increase by 1.25 to 1.50 percent by the end of the year. Also, the financial market is positioning only 43 percent probability of 25 basis point rate hike for December which is currently high considering the weaker U.S. inflation data.

As the Fed is being idle regarding its rates, about two-third of economists are expecting the central bank to ease up its bond portfolio in September and only a few foresee the central bank to loosen up its plan on July 25 and 26. Predominantly, they are saying the Fed will hold out on monetary policy at the meeting.