Monday, July 10 As is most often the case, the beginning of the trading week is accompanied by a completely empty macroeconomic calendar. So market participants will be able to digest the contents of the report of the US Department of Labor in a calm atmosphere, approaching this issue somewhat more carefully than at the time of its publication last Friday. Tuesday, July 11 The only thing that may arouse interest on Tuesday is the data on the labor market in the UK. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate may rise from 3.8% to 3.9%. Because of this, all other indicators are no longer so interesting. They only matter if the unemployment rate remains unchanged. So the pound will be under pressure from the very morning. Wednesday, July 12 Wednesday will begin with the publication of the producer price index in Japan, which should decrease from 5.1% to 4.4%. And this excludes the very possibility of the Bank of Japan revising its policy. And since the ultra-soft monetary policy exerts permanent pressure on the yen, the currency will continue to lose its positions on Wednesday. The main event not only of the day, but of the whole week, will be the inflation data in the United States. The growth rate of consumer prices is expected to slow down from 4.0% to 3.6%. Such a scenario dramatically reduces the likelihood of further growth in the Fed's interest rates, and may lead to the fact that the so-called pause will turn into a stop before the reversal. The main result of all this will be a decline in the US dollar. The day will end with a meeting of the Board of the Bank of Canada, following which the refinancing rate should be raised from 4.75% to 5.00%. An increase in interest rates traditionally strengthens the position of the corresponding currency. Consequently, the Canadian dollar may be the leader of the day in terms of growth. Thursday, July 13 On Thursday, data on industrial production in the UK are published, which may lead to a weakening of the pound. It is expected that the rate of decline in industrial production should accelerate from -1.9% to -2.4%. The single European currency will also be under pressure. Due to the same industrial production, the growth of which by 0.2% should be replaced by a decline of -2.3%. However, by the end of the trading day, both the pound and the single European currency may well not only win back all their losses, but even strengthen even more, since the producer price index in the United States is likely to decline from 1.1% to 0.2%. That is, inflation in the States will continue to decline. And this is rather a negative factor for the dollar. Friday, July 14 The end of the week will be quite quiet and calm, as the macroeconomic calendar on Friday is almost empty. Of course, various data are published, but their values from the point of view of the markets are minimal. So they will not be able to influence investors in any way.
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