Monday, July 3 The first trading day of July will be full of publications of data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector of almost all countries of the world. However, this will not have a significant impact on the market, since we are talking about the final data, which should only confirm the preliminary estimates. However, it is necessary to take into account the possibility of a noticeable difference between the final data and expectations. In this case, the market, of course, will be more active. Tuesday, July 4 No important publications are expected on Tuesday. This is not surprising, given that Independence Day will be celebrated in the United States. And without the participation of large American investors, the market usually remains stationary, since they control a significant part of the capital that turns around in the global financial market. Therefore, even a meeting of the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia will go unnoticed. However, it should be noted that the refinancing rate should be increased from 4.10% to 4.35%. Wednesday, July 5 On Wednesday, both indices of business activity in the service sector and composite indices are published. But as in the case of production indexes, we are talking about the final data. So only if they are somehow seriously different from the preliminary estimates, it will be possible to see at least some activity, otherwise the market will continue to stand still. Thursday, July 6 But on Thursday it is worth paying special attention to retail sales in the eurozone, the rate of decline of which may accelerate from -2.6% to -3.2%. This reduction in consumer activity will clearly be associated with the policy of the European Central Bank, which, in its quest to curb inflation, is driving the European economy into recession. So, in addition to negative data, accusations will fall against the European regulator, which will further aggravate the situation of the single European currency. But the published data on the labor market in the United States, which precedes the publication of the report of the Ministry of Labor, will have little effect. If, of course, they coincide with the forecasts, judging by which no significant changes are expected. Friday, July 7 The main event of the week will be the Friday publication of the report of the US Department of Labor. However, it will also not affect the dynamics of the market in any way, since the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. And although a noticeable decrease in the number of new jobs created outside agriculture is expected, there should still be noticeably more than 200 thousand. That is, the situation on the labor market will remain relatively stable.
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