Monday, June 26 The last week of June will start relatively quietly and calmly, since traditionally for Monday the macroeconomic calendar is absolutely empty. Market participants will have a little more time to reflect on the rather unexpected results of the meetings of the boards of key central banks, as well as the events in Russia related to the «mutiny» of the Wagner PMCs. Tuesday, June 27 On Tuesday, it is worth paying attention to inflation in Canada: the growth rate of consumer prices should slow down from 4.4% to 4.2%. This may lead to some weakening of the Canadian dollar, as the slowdown in inflation will increasingly force the Bank of Canada to think about the possible beginning of a gradual easing of monetary policy. But the US dollar will also be under pressure. The reason will be orders for durable goods, the volume of which is likely to decrease by 0.9%. And this indicates a noticeable reduction in consumer activity, which is the engine of economic growth. Wednesday, June 28 On Wednesday, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty, so you will have to focus exclusively on other factors. Including a speech by Jerome Powell. If the head of the US Federal Reserve says something new or unusual, then the market, of course, will move. Otherwise, the market will continue to consolidate near Tuesday's values. Thursday, June 29 Thursday will start with data on retail sales in Japan, the growth rate of which may slow down from 5.0% to 4.6%. And due to the decline in consumer activity, the yen will be under pressure. However, the movement itself will be quite modest, since the Japanese currency is not particularly sensitive to its own macroeconomic statistics. Also, the market will almost completely ignore the US GDP data, as the final data are published, which should only confirm the preliminary estimates. But what will really affect the market is applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. It is expected that the number of both initial and repeated requests should increase markedly. Which will naturally lead to a certain weakening of the dollar. Friday, June 30 Data on the labor market in Japan will traditionally be ignored by the market, especially since the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. The final data on UK GDP will also be ignored, as the market has already taken into account the slowdown in economic growth, which was reflected in preliminary estimates. But the preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone is probably the most significant event of the week. Consumer price growth is expected to slow down from 6.1% to 5.6%. And although the European Central Bank has expressed its intention to continue raising interest rates due to high inflation, the fact of a further slowdown creates prerequisites for the European regulator to stop tightening monetary policy in the near future. This may have a negative impact on the European currency, leading to its slight decline.
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