Monday, May 29 The upcoming week promises to be quite busy, but Monday is traditionally the quietest and calmest trading day. The reason for the lull this time will not be an empty macroeconomic calendar, but a day off in Europe and the USA: bank holidays are celebrated in the UK, and Memorial Day in the USA. Tuesday, May 30 Tuesday, by and large, will also turn out to be a fairly calm day due to the lack of significant economic publications. The only thing you can pay attention to is the unemployment rate in Japan. But given that it may remain unchanged, there will be no noticeable market reaction. Wednesday, May 31 However, on Wednesday, the Japanese yen may come under pressure due to retail sales, the growth rate of which may slow from 7.2% to 6.5%. But the data on Canada's GDP will not affect the situation in any way, as the final data will be published, which will only confirm the preliminary estimates already taken into account by the market. The main event of the day will be the publication of open vacancies in the United States, the number of which should be moderately reduced. This suggests that the situation on the labor market is deteriorating somewhat, and this is always perceived as an exceptionally negative factor. Against this background, the dollar will lose its positions in the middle of the week. Thursday, June 1 Thursday will be rich in the publication of data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector. However, you should not pay attention to them, since we are talking about the final data, whereas the market reacts more to preliminary data. Also, the data on the unemployment rate in Europe will not affect the dynamics of the market in any way, since the situation on the labor market should remain unchanged. But even if some changes do occur, it will still be ignored by the market, since the focus will be on the preliminary assessment of inflation in the eurozone. It is expected that the growth rate of consumer prices should slow down from 7.0% to 6.5%. And this is enough for investors to start expecting a slowdown in the growth of interest rates of the European Central Bank more and more. Which will inevitably lead to a weakening of the single European currency. And these data are so significant that even data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fade against their background. Moreover, minor changes in their number are predicted. Friday, June 2 The main event of Friday and the whole week is the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor Non-Farm Payrolls, the content of which can pretty undermine the dollar's position. The fact is that the unemployment rate may rise from 3.4% to 3.5%. In addition, 180 thousand new jobs should be created outside of agriculture. And to maintain the stability of the labor market, a little more than 200 thousand new jobs should be created every month. Consequently, unemployment will continue to rise. Therefore, the US dollar will end the week on a minor note.
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