Monday, May 1 The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the United States is published on Monday, but the market will not pay much attention to them. The fact is that the final data are published, which should only confirm the preliminary assessment already taken into account by the market. Tuesday, May 2 Tuesday will begin with a meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, following which the refinancing rate should be raised from 3.60% to 3.85%. This step will definitely lead to an increase in the Australian dollar. Then you should pay attention to the business activity index in Germany and the UK. However, the main event of the day will be the publication of preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone. This statistic is likely to lead to a weakening of the single European currency, as inflation should slow down from 6.9% to 6.6%. And this brings the moment of the beginning of the easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Wednesday, May 3 The main event not only on Wednesday, but throughout the week will be a meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations and the decision of the American regulator on the refinancing rate. And it is likely to be raised from 5.00% to 5.25%. At the moment, this step will contribute to the strengthening of the dollar. But then all attention will be focused on the subsequent comments of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. And if he does not rule out the possibility of a further increase in interest rates, then the strengthening of the dollar will be quite large-scale. Otherwise, it will be of a more modest nature. Thursday, May 4 The second most important event of the month will be the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, which will be held on Thursday. Market participants are confident that the refinancing rate will be increased from 3.50% to 3.75%. However, recently representatives of the European regulator have clearly hinted at the possibility of an increase by 50 basis points – that is, up to 4.00%. If this happens, the growth of the single European currency will be truly impressive. However, if the increase is more modest, the euro will only win back the losses incurred after the US Federal Reserve meeting. And again, as on Wednesday, against the background of the board meeting of the European regulator, all other events and data fade, so it makes no sense to take them into account. Friday, May 5 On Friday, it is worth paying attention to retail sales in the eurozone, especially since the pace of their decline should slow down from 3.0% to 2.1%. And since the growth of consumer activity is considered an exceptionally positive factor, the single European currency has a good chance to strengthen its position. But the main event of the day will be the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor Non-Farm Payrolls. It is expected that the unemployment rate should remain unchanged, and all the attention of the market will be focused on the number of new jobs created outside agriculture. And there may be only 190 thousand of them, and this is still according to the most optimistic estimate. Thus, the end of the week will be accompanied by a noticeable weakening of the US dollar.
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