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Goldman Sachs: core inflation in the US will fall to 2,9% by the end of 2023


November, 14 2022
watermark Economic news

Experts of the investment bank Goldman Sachs believe that the core inflation index (PCE Core index) will fall below 3% by the end of next year amid easing supply-side problems, lower real estate prices and a cooling labor market.


According to analysts, the PCE Core index (one of the most important indicators for the Federal Reserve) will fall from the current 5.1% to 3.5% by mid-2023, and by December it may reach 2.9%. A decrease in inflation in the country will allow the Fed to slow down in terms of aggressive tightening of monetary policy aimed at combating excessively high inflation. 


Markets, as a rule, react sharply to incoming data on the dynamics of consumer prices in the United States. For example, last week the stock market and the bond market demonstrated a rally after the publication of October inflation statistics, which turned out to be better than forecasts.


The S&P 500 index rose by 5.9% last week, which was the best result since the end of June. And the Nasdaq Composite jumped 8.1%, showing the best weekly rise since March. Analysts believe that the current rally on Wall Street will continue further, which will allow the S&P 500 indicator to soar by another 25%. This optimism can be explained by the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will soon switch to less aggressive measures in its monetary policy.


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Foreign exchange trading carries a high risk of losing money due to leverage and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest your money, you should carefully consider all the features associated with Forex, as well as your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance.