Japan’s Steady Gains of Core Inflation in December but Kept Inflation Rate

Consumer prices in Japan are anticipated to gain for the 12 consecutive months in December. Although, a low inflation over time, questioning the success in reaching its two percent target and puts pressure on the central bank.

Economists have forecast the Bank of Japan will maintain its short-term interest rate at minus 0.1 percent and the 10-year government bond yield target at around zero percent next week, based on the survey.

Data for next week also includes exports for December, which was seen progressing for 13th straight months due to overseas stipulate for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, cars, and steels.

The core consumer price of the country (CPI), including oil products but not volatile fresh food prices, rose by 0.9 percent in December from last year, which is similar to the previous rate, according to a survey from 20 economists.

Economists said that there are gains in electricity but there was a slow down in gas prices. On the other hand, petroleum products support consumer inflation.

Analysts forecast core consumer prices in Tokyo remained the same for the month of December then rose by 0.8 percent in January, which was released a month prior to the nationwide data. A chief economist of Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, Yoshiki Shinke, anticipates the core CPI index will remain at the same level in the next few months.

Oil price and wage negotiations will be observed closely as signals for consumer inflation.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is encouraging companies to increase wages by 3 percent or higher to boost consumer spending which would then lead to inflation.

The consumer prices data will be released from the internal affairs at 8.30 am Tokyo on January 26.

Exports climbed by 10.1 percent in December than last year, which has been steadily in an increase for 13 straight months. Although, the anticipated rate of growth is less than 16.2 percent in November. He said that exports may have risen but there is a slow recovery of domestic demand because of higher oil prices shrank trade surplus.  

Trade data will be published by the finance ministry on January 24 at 8.50 am. The Bank of Japan intends to keep an optimistic price forecast next week and give a better outlook of the economy compared three months ago and firmly shows they are in the process of ending deflation.