Monday, September 19 In principle, the macroeconomic calendar on Monday is almost empty. The only thing to pay attention to is the producer price index in Canada, which should decrease from 11.9% to 10.0%. This may indicate the probability of a decrease in inflation. However, if we take into account the fact that a meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations will be held on Wednesday, investors will remain cautious, and such data will not affect the dynamics of the market in any way. Tuesday, September 20 Tuesday will start with inflation data in Japan. It is expected that the growth rate of consumer prices should remain unchanged, which means that these data will not be able to have any impact. Canada will also provide statistics on inflation – most likely, it will decrease from 7.6% to 7.5%. And due to the insignificance of the changes, these data will not affect the situation either. Wednesday, September 21 The main event of the day will be a meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations. Market participants are confident that the refinancing rate will be raised again, but this time it will lead to a weakening of the US dollar. The fact is that the Fed is likely to raise the rate by 75 basis points, whereas the market is now talking about an increase of 100 basis points. That is, the increase in the end will not be as large-scale as the market expects. Before the meeting, data on home sales in the secondary market in the United States and on crude oil reserves in the country from the Ministry of Energy will also be published. Thursday, September 22 A meeting of the Bank of England will be held on Thursday. It is expected that following its results, the British regulator will decide to raise the refinancing rate by 50 basis points. Which will lead to an even greater strengthening of the pound. In the US, data on applications for unemployment benefits will be published, but they are likely to be ignored, since they should remain virtually unchanged. Friday, September 23 At the end of the week, preliminary estimates of business activity indices will be published everywhere, which may help the US dollar to strengthen its position somewhat. The fact is that in almost all countries, all indices are expected to decline without exception, whereas in the USA they should grow. The Canadian dollar will be under additional pressure after the release of retail sales statistics, the growth rate of which may collapse from 11.0% to 3.5%. Such a sharp decline in growth rates clearly will not leave investors indifferent, which will lead to a massive disposal of the Canadian dollar.
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