Monday, August 1 The first day of August will be quite a busy and interesting day, which is atypical for Monday. First, many countries will present the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector. However, they are unlikely to affect the dynamics of the market, since they should only confirm preliminary estimates. But retail sales in Germany, the rate of decline of which increased from -8% to -8.8%, will certainly set the market in motion. And if we add here the expected increase in the unemployment rate in the eurozone from 6.6% to 6.7%, it becomes clear that the euro will decline at the beginning of the week. Tuesday, August 2 The only thing worth paying attention to on Tuesday is the meeting of the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The regulator is expected to raise the refinancing rate from 1.35% to 1.85%. An increase in interest rates will traditionally provide some support to the Australian dollar, and it will be able to strengthen its position somewhat. In the evening, the United States will present statistics on the number of open vacancies in the labor market in June. Wednesday, August 3 On Wednesday, the final data on the index of business activity in the service sector, as well as the composite index, are published worldwide. However, as in the case of the production index, these data will not affect the dynamics of the market, as they confirm the preliminary estimates. In addition, it is worth paying attention to the statistics on unemployment in New Zealand: the indicator may decrease from 3.2% to 3.1%, which will provide some support to the New Zealand dollar. But the Swiss franc will certainly become cheaper against the background of the continued growth of inflation. The euro, on the contrary, may show quite a good strengthening due to the acceleration of retail sales growth from 0.2% to 2.5%. Thursday, August 4 The main event on Thursday will be a meeting of the Board of the Bank of England, during which the British regulator is likely to raise the refinancing rate from 1.25% to 1.75%. Such a move will support the pound and allow it to significantly strengthen its position. The United States will publish data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Friday, August 5 The main event of the whole week will be the Friday publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor (Non-Farm Payrolls). And if the unemployment rate almost certainly remains unchanged, then 290 thousand new jobs can be created outside agriculture. And this is about one and a half times more than is necessary to maintain the stability of the labor market. This suggests that the unemployment rate will not rise in the near future. Moreover, it has the potential for further decline. And this fact will allow the US dollar to strengthen significantly at the end of the first trading week of August.
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