Monday, May 30 Monday will again be a very quiet day as the economic calendar is completely empty and the United States has a Memorial Day holiday. Therefore, in principle, there will be no activity on the market, but in general, an incredibly busy week awaits us. Tuesday, May 31 In particular, data on retail sales in Japan will be published on Tuesday, the growth of which by 0.9% should be replaced by a decline of 1.2%. As a result, the yen will be under pressure from such a significant decline in consumer activity. The main event of the day will be the publication of a preliminary estimate of inflation in the eurozone. Forecasts suggest that the growth rate of consumer prices may slow down from 7.4% to 7.3%, which will indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure and will provide some support to the euro. Wednesday, June 1 Wednesday will start with data on Australia's GDP in the first quarter, which should show a slowdown in economic growth from 4.2% to 2.1%. And such a sharp drop will inevitably lead to a weakening of the Australian dollar. Then the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone and the UK are published. And later in the evening – in the United States. However, these data should confirm the preliminary estimates, so it is unlikely that they will have a visible impact on the dynamics of currencies. But the unemployment rate in Europe should decrease from 6.8% to 6.7%, which will contribute to the growth of the single European currency. At the same time, it is logical to assume a weakening of the US dollar. But its northern neighbor, the Canadian dollar, will be able to significantly strengthen its position – due to the fact that the Bank of Canada is likely to raise the refinancing rate from 1.0% to 1.5%. Thursday, June 2 On Thursday, it is worth paying attention to the Swiss franc, which will almost certainly be under noticeable pressure. The fact is that in Switzerland, inflation is just starting to rise – the growth rate of consumer prices should accelerate from 2.5% to 2.6%. Then data on producer prices in the eurozone will be published, which may cause a sharp change in the mood of market participants, since the index should grow from 36.8% to 39.3%. And this will mean that the slowdown in inflation in Europe was only temporary, and the European Central Bank is still slow to tighten the parameters of monetary policy. Therefore, the euro exchange rate may rush down and pull other currencies with it. Friday, June 3 On Friday, many countries publish the final data on the index of business activity in the service sector and the composite index, but these data will practically remain without attention. After all, they should only confirm the preliminary estimates that the market has already taken into account. But retail sales in Europe should decline significantly, which will lead to further weakening of the single European currency. But the main event of the week will be the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, Non-farm payrolls. And the first thing to pay attention to is the unemployment rate, which should decrease from 3.6% to 3.5%. In addition, 320 thousand new jobs can be created outside agriculture, which is about one and a half times more than is necessary to maintain the stability of the labor market. Thus, the week will end on a positive note for the dollar.
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