Possible Deflation Period of Japan to End Before the Tax Rate Hike in 2019

The government could conclude that the economy has been a steady growth to end the deflation period prior to a tax rate hike in October 2019, according to the government authorities.

This report would support Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who just won the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Sunday’s election. At the same time, this is in-line of the “Abenomics” stimulus policies implying that it is executed accordingly.

The government is yet to determine when it can be declared that the deflation has officially ended. Hence, the announcement of the government in ending the deflation was put aside, considering the feeble state of the economy and its recovery with the risk of price depreciating again. This can be publicized when the consumer inflation rises to levels around 1 to 15 percent while maintaining the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, which is another measure of prices, more than 1 percent at a steady pace, stated by one of the officials.

The Core consumer prices increase by 0.7 percent in August since 2016 considering the increase for eight consecutive months.  At the same time, this shows positive signs of growth in the economy.

The GDP deflator declined by 0.4 percent for three months until June in the same period from last year and an overall decline for four succeeding quarters.

Japan has been in a difficult pace for 15 years in the process of deflation since the bubble burst in inflation of assets in the late 1990s. It has been Abe’s top priority since he seated as the prime minister since 2012.

Abe mandated to halt the deflation and the governor of Japan’s central bank, Haruhiko Kuroda vowed to attain the 2 percent inflation target of the central bank through aggressive easing of monetary policies.

On the other hand, ending the deflation would stimulate the private consumption by boosting the public sentiment. Also, this would give grounds to proceed with the planned sales tax hike from 8 percent to 10 percent in the next two years as mentioned by the government officials.

Another official has supported this statement saying that it would be favorable to continue with the hike. However, these statements would not induce the Bank of Japan to reverse its huge monetary program because inflation would still be insufficient to reach the two percent target which they also noted.