Monday, February 14 And again, Monday is the day of an absolutely empty economic calendar. What can not be said about the rest of the week, because this time market participants are waiting for a huge amount of macroeconomic statistics. Tuesday, February 15 Tuesday will start with preliminary data on Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter. It is expected that the economy grew by 1.5% on a quarterly basis, which looks pretty good compared to a 0.9% decline in the third quarter. However, optimism about the yen will be moderate, as the growth rate of industrial production should slow down from 5.1% to 2.7%. Next, we are waiting for data on the UK labor market, which, quite possibly, will be ignored, since the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. A similar fate awaits the second estimate of eurozone GDP for the fourth quarter – it should confirm the first, which showed an acceleration in economic growth from 3.9% to 4.6%. Statistics on producer prices in the United States will end the day. Their growth rates may accelerate from 9.7% to 10.0%, which will be another argument in favor of raising the Fed's refinancing rate by 0.50% at once. And this should contribute to a significant increase in the dollar. Wednesday, February 16 On Wednesday, the British sterling may receive support in the form of inflation data, which should accelerate from 5.4% to 5.7%. It is worth noting that the Bank of England has already raised the refinancing rate twice, and taking into account the further increase in inflation, the rate may be raised again. The single European currency will also receive support. The growth driver should be data on industrial production in Europe, the rate of decline of which is likely to slow down from -1.5% to -0.6%. The Canadian dollar is also likely to grow – again due to inflation, which should accelerate from 4.8% to 5.0%. However, the main engine of the market on Wednesday will be American statistics, the forecasts for which are purely negative. Analysts predict that the growth rate of retail sales should slow down from 16.9% to 15.0%. In addition, the growth rate of industrial production may decrease from 3.7% to 2.8%. Thursday, February 17 Thursday will start with market data in Australia, where the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. And this, of course, will have a negative impact on the dynamics of the Australian dollar. But in the United States, a further reduction in the number of applications for unemployment benefits is expected. However, it is quite small: the number of initial applications will grow by only 3 thousand, and the number of repeat applications – by 4 thousand. So the market is likely to just ignore this data. Friday, February 18 On the last trading day, statistics on inflation in Japan will be published: the data should show an acceleration in consumer price growth from 0.8% to 0.9%. Experts note that this is already enough for the Bank of Japan to finally think about the prospect of a gradual tightening of monetary policy. Which, by the way, is a good reason for the growth of the yen. The sterling also has a good growth potential at the end of the week. It is expected that the British currency will be supported by retail sales data, the decline of which by 0.9% may be replaced by an increase of 3.2%. But the Canadian dollar is likely to end the week on a minor note, as the growth rate of retail sales in Canada should slow down from 4.4% to 2.5%.
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