Monday, July 26 On Monday, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty again, and the market will remain relatively calm. Attention should be paid only to the IFO business climate index in Germany: the indicator came out worse than forecast (100.8 versus 102.1), which put some pressure on the European currency rate. In the evening hours after the opening of the American trading session, data on new home sales in the US will be published, which may help to strengthen the dollar. Since these same sales should increase by 1.4%, which is quite a lot. Tuesday, July 27 On Tuesday, all the attention of market participants will be directed to the American statistics, since there is simply no other one on that day. And that data will also help strengthen the greenback, as durable goods orders could rise 1.9%. This means that retail sales will only grow in the near future, which of course contributes to the growth of the economy. Wednesday, July 28 Wednesday may start with a plunge in the Australian dollar, as inflation in Australia is expected to rise from 1.1% to 4.0%. And such an impressive growth of the indicator will inevitably have a negative impact not only on economic growth, but also on the very stability of the Australian economy as a whole. Moreover, after such data, the Australian regulator will literally have no choice but to urgently raise the refinancing rate, and neither business nor the economy is ready for this yet. But in Canada the situation is absolutely opposite – there inflation should slow down from 3.6% to 3.1%, which will be able to calm investors and allow the Canadian dollar to somewhat strengthen its position. Late in the evening, the decision of the US FRS on the interest rate will become known and the FOMC press conference will be held. Thursday, July 29 The main event on Thursday will be the publication of preliminary data on US GDP for the second quarter. These data should show that the pace of growth of the American economy has accelerated somewhat. And if the American economy continues to grow steadily, then the consequences of the crisis will be overcome by the end of this year. Moreover, the number of applications for unemployment benefits may also decrease slightly. Taken together, these data will provide good support for the US dollar. Friday, July 30 Friday may start with a weakening of the Japanese yen, as retail sales in the country should decline by 3.6%. At the same time, industrial production should grow by 5.1%, but this will give the currency almost no support. But most investors will be interested in preliminary data on inflation in Europe. Inflation is expected to rise from 1.9% to 2.6%. And this is a rather significant jump in consumer prices, which will not pass without a trace for the economy. As a result, the single European currency will come under severe pressure at the end of the week.
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