The main events by the morning: October 1

• Chinese goods are disappearing from Russian marketplaces. By the end of August, the share of settlements between Russian sellers and Chinese suppliers decreased from 67.8% to 51.1%. The reason is the same: Chinese banks are afraid of secondary US sanctions and refuse to conduct transactions with Russia. In return, Russian companies are starting to purchase goods more often in Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

• The IDF has announced the launch of a ground operation in the border areas in southern Lebanon. The purpose of these «limited and targeted raids» is to eliminate the infrastructure of the Hezbollah movement. Shortly before that, Israel launched an airstrike on the suburbs of Beirut. In response, dozens of rockets were fired from Lebanon, which struck northern Israel. The situation in the region continues to escalate, threatening to escalate the conflict to new fronts.

• The yuan is peaking against the ruble, but may stabilize. Several factors support the growth of the yuan. First, the Chinese currency is strengthening in the global market: the dollar-yuan exchange rate has reached its lowest level since October 2023. Secondly, sales of foreign currency earnings have decreased in Russia, and problems with cross-border settlements persist. However, an increase in activity in the over-the-counter market is expected, which will lead to increased volatility.

• NATO is changing its Secretary General – Jens Stoltenberg, who led the alliance for ten years, is resigning. He will be replaced by Mark Rutte, the former Prime Minister of the Netherlands. The official inauguration ceremony will take place on October 1. Rutte will have to address important issues: the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the growing influence of China and the maintenance of U.S. leadership in the alliance.

• The Pentagon has signed a $6.9 billion contract with Boeing to produce small-diameter bombs. According to the statement of the US Department of Defense, the weapons will be supplied to Ukraine, Japan and Bulgaria. The contract is valid until December 2035.