Monday, October 3 On Monday, only the final data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector, both in Europe and in the United States, are published. However, they are unlikely to have an impact on the market, as they only need to confirm preliminary estimates. Therefore, quotes at the beginning of the week will remain close to the values reached on Friday. Tuesday, October 4 Tuesday may begin with the strengthening of the single European currency, which will pull other currencies along with it. The growth driver will be data on producer prices in Europe, the growth rate of which may accelerate from 37.9% to 43.6%. This suggests that inflation in Europe will continue to rise in the near future, which will finally convince market participants that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates much more actively than the US Federal Reserve. It is also worth paying attention to the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision. Wednesday, October 5 In the middle of the week, the final data on the index of business activity in the service sector, as well as on the composite index, will be published. However, they can be ignored in principle, since they should only confirm the preliminary estimates already taken into account by the market. The dynamics of the New Zealand dollar, which has a good chance of significant growth, will be of greater interest. The fact is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to raise the refinancing rate from 3.0% to 3.5%, which will support the national currency. Employment data in the United States will have little impact, as the latest statistics will not differ much from the data for the previous month. Thursday, October 6 The only thing to pay attention to on Thursday is the data on retail sales in the eurozone. Moreover, the rate of their decline should accelerate from -0.9% to -2.2%, which will undoubtedly negatively affect the euro exchange rate. After all, the decline in consumer activity indicates a confident slide of the economy into recession. Friday, October 7 The main event not only on Friday, but throughout the week, will be the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor (Non-Farm Payrolls). According to forecasts, the unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 3.7%. But the number of new jobs created outside agriculture should increase by 290 thousand. This is quite a lot and gives signals of a further decrease in unemployment. However, the US dollar is now clearly overbought, and investors are looking for a reason for a local rebound. And it may be the fact that 315 thousand new jobs were created a month earlier. In other words, the labor market is still losing momentum, which will be perceived as a negative factor that will lead to a weakening of the dollar.
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