Monday, June 27 The new trading week could start with a weaker dollar as durable goods orders are released on Monday. And their volume may decrease by 0.3%, although last week an increase of 0.3% was predicted. That is, literally over the weekend, experts revised their forecasts for the worse. And this once again confirms fears about the US economy sliding into recession. Tuesday, June 28 Tuesday will be a fairly quiet day as the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. The only thing that can influence the dynamics of the market is the political statements that will be made following the G7 summit. Wednesday, June 29 On Wednesday, you should pay attention to retail sales in Japan – their growth rate may accelerate from 2.9% to 3.5%. The growth of consumer activity in the country will give the yen a certain portion of optimism, so the Japanese currency will be able to significantly strengthen its positions. But the data on the GDP of the United States, most likely, will be left without attention. After all, final data are published, which should only confirm all previous preliminary estimates. And they have long been taken into account by the market. Thursday, June 30 On Thursday, the final data on UK GDP will be published, and they will face the same fate as similar data for the US. Because the market has worked them out for a long time. But retail sales in Switzerland will certainly lead to a weakening of the Swiss franc. After all, the rate of their decline should accelerate from -6.0% to -6.3%. The scale of the decline is quite impressive, which will clearly disappoint investors. But the US dollar will get an excellent reason for growth in the form of applications for unemployment benefits. The fact is that the number of initial applications may decrease by 11 thousand, and repeated – by 5 thousand. Judging by the initial applications, the reduction is predicted to be quite noticeable, which will become the main driver of dollar growth. Friday, July 1 At the end of the week, final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector are published, and for almost all countries of the world. But these data will have little effect, since they should only confirm preliminary estimates that have long been taken into account by the market. The data on the labor market in Japan will not have an impact on the market either, due to the fact that the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. The only thing that can affect the market is data on the lending market in the UK. Experts suggest that the pound sterling will lose its positions, as absolutely all indicators are expected to decline.
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