Monday, May 16 Monday started with data from China, reflecting a slowdown in economic activity and extremely disappointing market participants. The fact is that industrial production in China showed a decline for the first time since 2020 – the indicator fell by 2.9%, while analysts predicted an increase of 0.4%. Retail sales in April decreased by 11.1%, while a decrease of only 6.1% was expected. Tuesday, May 17 Tuesday started with data on the labor market in the UK. The unemployment rate in the country fell from February's 3.8% to 3.7% in March. Statistics also pointed to an increase in average wages in March and a significant decrease in applications for unemployment benefits in April. You should also pay attention to the second estimate of eurozone GDP for the first quarter. It was expected that it would confirm the first estimate, but the economy of the European region showed growth – up to 5.1% y/y and 0.3% m/m. During the American session, data on retail sales in the United States will be of interest. Forecasts suggest a slowdown in their growth rate from 6.9% to 4.2%. The growth rate of industrial production in the United States may also slow down – from 5.5% to 2.0%, which will increase the negative for the dollar. Wednesday, May 18 On Wednesday, preliminary data on Japan's GDP for the first quarter are published, which, as expected, may show a decline in economic growth. Because of this, the yen may begin to lose ground. The decline in the currency may be reinforced by statistics on industrial production, the growth rate of which by 0.5% may be replaced by a decline of -1.7%. The pound will also be under pressure. The negative factor will be the data on inflation, which should accelerate from 7.0% to 8.9%. This suggests that all the efforts of the Bank of England have not yet brought any results, and inflation continues to rise. The final data on inflation in the eurozone are likely to be ignored, as they should coincide with the preliminary estimate. So market participants will not see anything new. But inflation may well help the Canadian dollar, since in Canada it may decrease from 6.7% to 6.6%. And the reduction of inflationary pressure in the current conditions is an exceptionally positive factor. Thursday, May 19 Thursday will begin with the publication of data on the labor market in Australia, which most likely will not affect the Australian dollar in any way, since the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. But the Canadian dollar may well continue to strengthen its position. This time, due to data on producer prices, the growth rate of which should slow down from 18.5% to 17.0%. That is, inflationary pressure will continue to decrease. Friday, May 20 The first thing to pay attention to on Friday is inflation in Japan – it should rise from 1.2% to 1.5%. This will mean that Japan is gradually slipping into recession, which is accompanied by an increase in consumer prices. And this is an extremely negative combination that will clearly scare off investors. As a result, the yen will continue to lose its positions. Well, retail sales in the UK will finish the week, the growth of 0.9% should be replaced by a decline of -8.4%. Such a sharp drop may well lead to an even greater collapse of the pound sterling.
TAUTAN CEPAT
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