Robert Holzman, a member of the ECB's governing council, believes that aggressive US tariff statements could lead to lower consumer prices rather than higher inflation. At a meeting in Washington, he noted that the uncertainty due to the Trump administration's tariff initiatives leaves further ECB rate decisions completely open. According to Holzman, it is difficult to predict the consequences of the current trade disagreements, but he shares the position of ECB President Christine Lagarde, according to which the final impact of duties is deflationary rather than inflationary. Since June last year, the ECB has already reduced the cost of borrowing seven times, and markets expect two more rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points by the end of 2025, with a 60% chance of a third step. At the beginning of the month, Trump announced new duties for a number of countries in an effort to restore trade balance, bring back industrial jobs and increase government revenues, but later granted a 90-day delay and announced plans to conclude dozens of bilateral trade agreements. Economists warn of the risks of rising inflation and a slowdown in the economy, while business representatives point out that uncertainty hinders long-term planning. Holtzman believes that these «scars» will remain even after a possible tariff reduction.
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