The euro rather quickly regained its position against the U.S. dollar after the risks of a political crisis in France were shifted toward a similar political crisis and government shutdown in the United States.

In addition, two of the leading politicians of the European Central Bank described the inflation outlook as not implying significant risks in either direction, which indicates that they currently have no intention of changing interest rates. This also creates additional appeal for the European currency. Vice President Luis de Guindos and Chief Economist Philip Lane acknowledged that a range of factors are influencing consumer prices, both upward and downward.

"It can be said that inflation risks are balanced, we are meeting our forecasts, and price stability can to some extent be guaranteed," Guindos said at a conference in Madrid on Monday. "We consider our current levels acceptable. This is justified by recent inflation, our own inflation forecasts for the coming years, as well as the transmission of monetary policy."

Markets reacted to these statements with cautious optimism. Investors interpreted the absence of a signal for rate cuts as support for European assets. Many economists believe the ECB will continue to closely monitor incoming data before making any decisions on interest rates. Most ECB policymakers argue that they are satisfied with the current parameters of monetary policy, and that significant deviations from the baseline scenario would be required to justify further easing after eight quarter-point cuts over the past year.

According to ECB forecasts, inflation will slow to 1.7% next year and then return to 1.9% in 2027, while growth is expected to pick up, mainly due to increased budget spending in Germany and other countries.

Lane noted that although he is not currently inclined toward a more accommodative stance, he outlined the potential choice for policymakers: either keep rates unchanged or lower them further. "An increase in the probability or intensity of downside risk factors would support the argument that a slightly lower refinancing rate could better safeguard the medium-term inflation target," he said.

Speaking at a conference in Frankfurt, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane emphasized that "procedurally, our approach to monetary policy must remain open if we want to properly account for changing information on inflation forecasts and related risks."

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on breaking through the 1.1720 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1745. From there, it may be possible to climb to 1.1775, but doing so without support from major players will be rather difficult. The farthest target will be the 1.1820 high. In the case of a decline, I expect serious buyer activity only around 1.1685. If there is no support there, it would be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1655 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1610.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3500. Only this will allow them to target 1.3540, above which it will be quite difficult to move. The farthest target will be the 1.3565 level. In the case of a decline, the bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3460. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3410 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3365.