Global debt has exceeded $100 trillion: rates are rising, costs are increasing

In 2024, the volume of government and corporate bond issuance in the world exceeded $100 trillion. Rising interest rates are forcing borrowers to choose more productive investments. Despite the rate cuts by central banks, the cost of borrowing remains above the level of 2022, which increases the replacement of low-rate debt and increases interest costs.

States are also facing rising costs: the German parliament has approved a significant infrastructure project, and the largest economies are incurring heavy costs related to the «green» transition and the aging of the population. According to the OECD, the combination of rising costs and debt risks limits borrowing opportunities. Between 2021 and 2024, the share of interest expenses from production reached its highest level in 20 years.

Half of the national debt of the OECD countries and a third of the corporate debt must be repaid by 2027. Low-income countries have the greatest risks: more than 50% of the debt is due in the next three years and more than 20% this year. Emerging markets that depend on external financing must develop domestic capital. Rates on dollar-denominated bonds increased from 4% in 2020 to over 6% in 2024, and for high-risk countries exceeded 8%.