The market is waiting for the ECB to cut rates after inflation in France and Spain fell below 2%

The probability of a reduction in key interest rates by the European Central Bank in October increased significantly after the publication of data on slowing inflation in France and Spain. 

According to traders, the chances of a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB meeting on October 17 have increased to 80%. Analysts at major banks such as BNP Paribas and HSBC share similar expectations.

Consumer prices in France, harmonized according to EU standards, increased by 1.5% y/y in September, which is significantly lower than the August figure of 2.2%. A similar trend is observed in Spain, where inflation slowed to 1.7% – this is the lowest growth rate since June 2023, while in August the price increase was 2.4%. 

Both of these indicators have reinforced expectations that inflationary pressures are easing, which may lead to a change in the ECB's monetary policy. Currently, the ECB deposit rate is 3.5%, the rate of basic refinancing operations is 3.65%, and the rate on margin loans is 3.9%.