Monday, September 13 As it often happens on Mondays, the trading day is accompanied by an absolutely empty macroeconomic calendar. But this time it will allow market participants to continue to win back forecasts for inflation in the United States, so that the dollar will gradually strengthen at the beginning of the week. Tuesday, September 14 Tuesday starts with the publication of data on industrial production in Japan, the growth rate of which should slow down from 23.0% to 11.6% in annual terms. In monthly terms, the indicator will be even worse, since production volumes may decrease by 1.5%. This statistic will not bring anything good to the Japanese yen. But the British pound may strengthen its position, as there is a possibility of a decrease in the unemployment rate in the UK from 4.7% to 4.6%. The Swiss franc may also grow on Tuesday. The reason for this may be data on producer prices, the growth rate of which should accelerate from 3.3% to 4.0%. That is, there is a possibility of further inflation growth, which is rather a positive factor in the situation with Switzerland. The fact is that the growth rate of consumer prices in the country is close to zero, and deflation can resume at any moment. After the opening of the US session, the dollar is likely to start growing rapidly, as inflation in the US may decrease from 5.4% to 5.3%. This means that inflation risks are somewhat reduced, which does not threaten the recovery of the American economy. Wednesday, September 15 Wednesday will start with data on inflation in the UK. Market participants are confident that the growth rate of consumer prices will accelerate from 2.0% to 2.9%. Such a rapid rise in prices not only threatens the pace of economic recovery, but also forces the Bank of England to take emergency measures, for which the market may not be ready. All this will put a lot of pressure on the pound sterling exchange rate. But the data on industrial production in the eurozone is likely to go unnoticed due to their weak impact on the market. Although the growth rate of the industry should slow down from 9.7% to 6.2%. However, in monthly terms, the industry should grow by 0.5%. Canada will also provide data on inflation, but they may go unnoticed due to its immutability. And, apparently, the market will ignore the data on industrial production in the United States. Although its growth rate should slow down from 6.6% to 5.0%. However, an increase of 0.5% is expected in monthly terms. Thursday, September 16 Thursday may begin with a strengthening of the New Zealand dollar, as the GDP growth rate of New Zealand in the second quarter should accelerate from 2.4% to 16.2%. That is, the New Zealand economy may well recover within this year. But the Australian dollar is likely to become cheaper. The pressure on the currency may be exerted by the data on unemployment, which may grow from 4.6% to 4.9%. The main event of the day will be the data on retail sales in the United States, which will certainly undermine the dollar's position. The sales growth rate should slow down from 15.8% to 13.0% y/y, and a decrease of 0.7% is expected on a monthly basis, which will inevitably put pressure on the greenback rate. Friday, September 17 But the British pound on Friday will receive support from retail sales statistics, as their growth rates should accelerate from 2.4% to 2.8%. On a monthly basis, sales may increase by 0.7%. The final data on inflation in Europe will end the week, which should only confirm the preliminary estimate, which previously showed its growth from 2.2% to 3.0%. However, the market has already taken this factor into account, so no reaction will follow.
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