Monday, August 28 Despite the absence of significant events in the macroeconomic calendar at the beginning of the week, it is expected that it will be quite intense. Even Monday is unlikely to be a quiet day, as investors will analyze the results of the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Tuesday, August 29 The data on the labor market in Japan published on Tuesday probably will not cause a strong reaction from investors, as it is expected that the unemployment rate in the Land of the Rising Sun will remain unchanged. But the data on the number of open vacancies in the United States will not be ignored. Forecasts suggest that their number will also remain almost unchanged. And this may indicate both the achievement of a peak when the potential for further growth is limited due to the lack of available labor resources, and the flexibility and dynamics of the labor market. Perhaps the pace of job creation fully meets the current needs of the market. Given this uncertainty, the foreign exchange market may show some increased volatility. However, in the end, the market will remain virtually unchanged. Wednesday, August 30 The only thing worth paying attention to on Wednesday is the change in employment in the United States. It is predicted that it will increase by 280 thousand jobs. This significant increase clearly indicates the potential for further reduction in the unemployment rate. Naturally, this will support the strengthening of the dollar. But the second estimate of US GDP for the II quarter is likely to be ignored, as it should confirm the first estimate, which has already been taken into account by the market. Thursday, August 31 Thursday is likely to start with some weakening of the yen, as the growth rate of retail sales in Japan may slow from 5.9% to 4.3%. However, the main event of the day will be a preliminary estimate of inflation in the eurozone, where the growth rate of consumer prices may slow down from 5.3% to 4.9%. This may be the reason for the end of the cycle of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank. Such a decision, in turn, may lead to a significant weakening of the single European currency. As for the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, it is likely to remain virtually unchanged, and the market is likely to pass by these data. Friday, September 1 Although the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector are published en masse on Friday, on the day when the report of the US Department of Labor Non-farm Payrolls is released, they are unlikely to be noticed by the market. Since everyone is only interested in the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside agriculture. However, there is a certain problem for the dollar here. If the unemployment rate remains unchanged, only 180 thousand new jobs can be created. And this means that for the second month in a row, less than 200 thousand jobs are being created, which may indicate the risk of an increase in the unemployment rate. Taking into account the American demographics, in order to maintain the stability of the labor market, approximately 250 thousand new jobs need to be created every month.
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