Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1694 occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential.

Given the expected lack of market reaction to the Italian Consumer Price Index and German Producer Price Index data, EUR/USD fluctuations remained relatively subdued. For this reason, I did not consider the 1.1694 test a strong signal to buy the euro. It is quite possible that the market is positioning itself for more meaningful events, such as the upcoming European Central Bank and Federal Reserve meetings. However, we are unlikely to see strong, directional movement by the end of this week.

In the afternoon, with no new remarks from Donald Trump, market activity is expected to remain low. The release of the U.S. monthly budget statement is unlikely to impact currency trading, and no other important economic data is scheduled. The lack of significant publications, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, may trigger short-term volatility, but a sustained move is unlikely.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the execution of Scenario #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy EUR/USD today after the price reaches the level of 1.1705 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1744. Around 1.1744, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions, anticipating a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction. A strong rally in the euro is unlikely today. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy EUR/USD today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1678 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This should limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. The expected targets would be 1.1705 and 1.1744.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell EUR/USD after the price reaches 1.1678 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1631. At 1.1631, I plan to exit short positions and open long positions, aiming for a 20–25 point retracement in the opposite direction. Selling pressure is likely to return only after new comments from Trump. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move downward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell EUR/USD today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1705 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. The expected targets would be 1.1678 and 1.1631.

Chart Details:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions
• Thick green line – potential Take Profit level or area to manually close long trades, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions
• Thick red line – potential Take Profit level or area to manually close short trades, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – use overbought/oversold conditions as confirmation before entering trades

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be especially cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of key fundamental releases to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize risk. Trading without stops can lead to rapid losses, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

And remember, successful trading requires a well-defined plan—such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is usually a losing strategy for intraday traders.