Monday, December 19 In fact, we are facing the last working week of this year, as after Christmas and until the New Year, the financial markets of Europe and the United States literally freeze in place. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is again almost completely empty. Attention can only be attracted by the data on the business climate in Germany from the Ifo, which turned out to be better than forecasts, rising to 88.6 points (forecast – 87.4 points). During the afternoon trading, the dynamics of the Canadian dollar is likely to change due to the publication of data on producer prices, the growth rate of which may accelerate from 10.1% to 11.0%. And this suggests that the Bank of Canada will continue to raise interest rates, which, in turn, will contribute to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar. Tuesday, December 20 Tuesday will begin with a meeting of the Board of the Bank of Japan, following which the refinancing rate is likely to be left at the same level once again, despite the fact that it is negative. Such a policy of the Japanese central bank exerts significant pressure on the yen, which is why it will weaken a little more. In addition, you can pay attention to retail sales in Canada, the growth rate of which may slow down from 6.9% to 3.1%, which will lead to a weakening of the Canadian dollar. Wednesday, December 21 On Wednesday, Canada is again in the spotlight, this time due to the publication of inflation data. According to forecasts, the growth rate of consumer prices should slow down from 6.9% to 6.7%, which somewhat contradicts the dynamics of producer prices. However, it is worth noting that for central banks, inflation is much more important than producer prices. Therefore, a decrease in the growth rate of consumer prices will lead to a noticeable weakening of the Canadian dollar. Thursday, December 22 On Thursday, data on the GDP of the United Kingdom and the United States are published. However, these data will remain ignored, despite their great importance, since we are talking about the final data, which should only confirm the preliminary estimates that have long been taken into account by the market. But the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will clearly attract the attention of market participants, especially since the number of initial applications may grow by 14 thousand, and repeated applications by 2 thousand. And although this growth is insignificant, the situation on the labor market has clearly been deteriorating for eight weeks in a row, which will lead to a weakening of the US dollar. Friday, December 23 The only thing worth paying attention to on Friday is inflation in Japan, which should rise from 3.7% to 3.9%. Which should finally convince the Bank of Japan to start raising the refinancing rate. And such a prospect will lead to a certain growth of the yen.
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