Monday, September 12 The macroeconomic calendar on Monday is almost empty. Only data on GDP and industrial production in the UK can be of interest. The first indicator grew by 0.2%, while analysts had forecast a 0.4% increase. The growth rate of industrial production slowed down – from 2.4% to 1.1%. Experts predicted growth of 1.9%. In the current reality, these data can have little effect on anything, so the market will consolidate in the area of the values reached. Tuesday, September 13 On Tuesday, publications from the UK will continue. In particular, data on the labor market will be released: on the unemployment rate, the average wage level and the general change in employment. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged. Next, you should pay attention to the inflation data in the United States. It is expected that the growth rate of consumer prices should slow down from 8.5% to 8.1%. This will finally convince investors that the US Federal Reserve System will at least slow down the pace of raising the refinancing rate, which will lead to a noticeable weakening of the dollar. Wednesday, September 14 The main event of Wednesday will be the publication of inflation data already in the UK. And unlike in the USA, in this case, an acceleration in consumer price growth is expected from 10.1% to 10.6%. As a result, the Bank of England will be forced to actively raise its refinancing rate, which will lead to an even greater strengthening of the pound's position. At the same time, the growth of the pound will also support the exchange rate of the single European currency, which will be under pressure a little earlier due to a slowdown in the growth of industrial production in Europe from 2.4% to 1.7% (and this is according to the most optimistic forecasts). There are fears that the growth rate will slow down to 0.6% altogether. The US dollar will be under pressure on Wednesday due to a decline in the producer price index in the US from 9.8% to 8.9%, which indicates a further decline in inflation. Thus, most likely, the market will not even notice the decline in industrial production in Europe. Thursday, September 15 On Thursday, the US dollar will continue to lose ground. This time, the reason for this will be data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States. Both indicators should show a noticeable decline, which will have a negative impact on the US currency. Friday, September 16 Friday will start with a slight weakening of the pound, as the pace of decline in retail sales in the UK may accelerate from -3.4% to -3.6%. However, the pound can very quickly recoup its losses and even strengthen its position somewhat. This will happen against the background of the growth of the single European currency, which will be due to the acceleration of inflation in the euro area from 8.9% to 9.1%. And such inflationary dynamics will finally convince investors that the ECB will raise the refinancing rate by 75 basis points at least once more.
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