Monday, February 27 Analysts expected a rebound in the dollar over the past week, but it never happened. At the beginning of the new trading week, expectations will be similar. Moreover, data on orders for durable goods in the United States were published on Monday – their volume decreased by 4.5%. And after that, consumer activity, which is the engine of America's economic growth, should inevitably decrease. Thus, the week started with a weakening of the dollar. Tuesday, February 28 The most significant events on Tuesday will be data on retail sales and industrial production in Japan. It is expected that the growth rate of retail sales should slow down from 3.8% to 3.6%, and the rate of decline in production should slow down from -2.4% to -1.1%. If this forecast is justified, it will mean that the Japanese industry is gradually emerging from stagnation and there are signs of recovery. And this will give the yen strength and allow it to strengthen its position somewhat. But the Canadian dollar is likely to be under pressure due to disappointing forecasts for economic growth. It is expected that the preliminary estimate of GDP should show not just a further slowdown in growth, but also a gradual slide into recession, which is an extremely negative factor. Wednesday, March 1 Wednesday will begin with the publication of similar data for Australia, which will lead to a weakening of the Australian dollar. The British pound will also be under pressure. A significant contraction of the lending market is expected in the UK. First of all, mortgage lending, which is of key importance for the British economy, since real estate transactions and construction account for more than 20% of the GDP of the United Kingdom. And since the pound has a significant weight in the dollar index, all currencies without exception will decline. Thursday, March 2 The most significant event of the week will take place on Thursday. We are talking about a preliminary assessment of inflation in the eurozone. According to forecasts, the growth rate of consumer prices may slow down from 8.6% to 8.2%. In combination with the unchanged unemployment at 6.6%, the decrease in inflation clearly indicates the increasing possibility of the beginning of easing the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Which will lead to an even greater weakening of the single European currency. At the same time, the significance of these data is so great that the market, in principle, will not pay attention to something else - for example, data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Moreover, their number should remain almost unchanged. Friday, March 3 Friday will turn out to be a fairly calm day. In Japan, data on the labor market will be published, but the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. Data on producer prices in the eurozone are also published at the end of the week. But their growth rates should slow down from 24.6% to 19.0%, which will only confirm the inflation data published a day earlier. Thus, investors are likely to simply digest the information received on Thursday.
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