Gold stabilized today after Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's speech in Bangkok, which prompted traders to scale back bets on a rate hike this month. Spot gold trades around $4,174.07 per ounce and is largely unchanged, after the metal posted its largest one-day gain in over two weeks yesterday and closed near $4,145.80. Silver rose about 0.6% to $57.72 (after $56.15 on Thursday); platinum and palladium also gained.

Warsh said nothing at the IMF meeting that would destroy expectations of a pause in October, and he gave the market few hints before the blackout period, which starts Saturday and runs until the meeting in two weeks. The probability of a rate increase at that meeting fell to about 17%. That is constructive for gold, because a hike would pressure a non-yielding asset.

Still, the support is limited. Gold rose on Thursday partly because doubts about the AI investment boom pushed investors out of tech stocks and rising bond demand pushed yields down. Today equity selling eased, and Treasury yields ticked up modestly across the curve, so the factor that helped gold yesterday has partially faded. Note that yields remain the principal guide for the metal.

Against this background, gold looks set to finish the week marginally lower. It is being pulled down by the inflation suite for September — producer prices and retail sales — which surprised to the upside and earlier reinforced bets on an October hike. Since the US–Iran conflict began in late February, the metal has lost about a fifth of its value as the conflict disrupted energy markets, fuelled inflation, and prompted central banks to tighten, with the Fed raising rates last month for the first time since 2023.

All this suggests that until the Fed gives a clear signal in December and yields remain elevated, gold will trade in a narrow $4,150–4,200 range. If oil weakens and inflation shows signs of cooling, I expect a move toward the top of that range; but without lower yields and sustained momentum above $4,200, I don't expect a breakout. If new data revive rate-hike bets, the metal will come under renewed pressure.

Buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,192 to target $4,249, above which a breakout becomes difficult. The farther upside target is the $4,304 area. On the downside, bears will try to seize $4,124; if they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bull positions and push gold down to $4,062 with the prospect of extending to $4,047.