Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1778 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark. Nevertheless, the focus was on U.S. labor market data, which turned out to be much better than economists' forecasts, prompting a wave of selling. As a result, the pair fell toward the target level of 1.1724. Buying from that level on the rebound allowed an additional 30 pips of profit to be taken from the market.

The publication of data showing a drop in U.S. unemployment to 4.1%, combined with a nonfarm payroll increase exceeding analysts' expectations, sparked renewed interest in the U.S. dollar. Encouraged by signals of a strengthening U.S. economy, investors began actively offloading traditional risk assets and reallocating capital into the dollar. These positive employment figures provide a favorable backdrop for the dollar in the near term, as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate changes.

Today, attention will be focused on key manufacturing and consumer spending indicators from major eurozone economies. The first to be released will be industrial order data from Germany and France, reflecting changes in demand for industrial products—a vital indicator of economic health. This will be followed by retail sales figures from Italy, which provide insight into consumer activity and are a key component of overall economic growth. The morning session will conclude with the eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI), which reflects price changes for goods produced by industrial enterprises and serves as an important leading indicator of inflation.

A rise in the PPI may suggest potential increases in consumer prices in the future, possibly influencing the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions. Altogether, these data releases will help form a clearer picture of the current state of the European economy and assess its resilience to external challenges. The results will likely impact the euro exchange rate.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today upon reaching the 1.1787 level (indicated by the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1822. At 1.1822, I will exit long positions and sell the euro on a rebound, aiming for a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expect a rise in the euro only after strong economic data is released.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1765 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1787 and 1.1822 can then be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1765 level (red line on the chart), targeting a drop to 1.1728, where I will exit the market and buy immediately on a rebound (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair will return if there is weak economic data.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1787 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the 1.1765 and 1.1728 levels can then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.