Yesterday, the S&P 500 index hit the target level of 5,516 – the same level as June 20, 2024, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from October 2022. The Marlin Oscillator immediately turned bullish, which is already a positive signal.
The main question now is whether this is a short-term correction or whether the market is finally heading for a free fall. There seems to be no panic as risk-seeking investors are eagerly buying stocks, seeing current prices as a great opportunity to go long (and, of course, the business media is actively fueling this view). The next target for growth is the 5,670 level, and if this resistance is broken, the 5,769 mark (set on January 13th) will be in sight. A triumphant breakout above 5,881-5,910 would signal the start of a new wave of record highs. Follow the link for details.
The US stock market continues to decline, and yesterday's session was another day of weakness. The Dow Jones fell by 1.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, and the Nasdaq plunged 2%, firmly settling in correction territory. Paradoxically, even positive economic reports released on Thursday morning failed to spur buying activity. The February Producer Price Index came in below expectations, while jobless claims remained comfortably low.
In his usual style, President Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol in response to the European Union's 50% tariff on American whiskey. Trump decided not to quibble over small tariffs, launching a trade war that could impact not only the import of luxury wines but also global economic growth. Investors reacted negatively to this move, with stocks of some companies immediately dipping into the red. On the other hand, Treasury bonds posted gains, with the 10-year yield falling by 4 basis points. Follow the link for details.
Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued their sharp declines. While the US market is nervously eyeing the debt ceiling, which once again threatens to become a reality, Asian stocks are rising. In particular, China's CSI 300 reached its highest level this year. Meanwhile, a classic political drama is unfolding in the United States: Republicans and Democrats are playing a game of "who will surrender first," arguing over the budget and, as always, risking a government shutdown.
Notably, Trump has announced 200% tariffs on European wines, champagne, and spirits in retaliation for the EU's 50% tariff on American whiskey. Aluminum and steel tariffs will remain in place, with Trump confirming that there will be no concessions. Furthermore, the US administration plans to impose new reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners starting April 2. While America is embroiled in trade disputes worldwide, oil prices have risen due to the new sanctions, and Bitcoin has quickly recovered from yesterday's drop – possibly because traders have decided that crypto may be safer than US stocks at the moment. Follow the link for details.
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